Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Aston Villa to win @ 1.84 – our chance 59% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAston Villa to win ✓59% · @1.84
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.75
Aston Villa vs West Ham preview and prediction
The match
Aston Villa host West Ham in the Premier League on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 15:15 (WAT) at Villa Park.
Form guide
Aston Villa's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Lille 2–0 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Aston Villa and 0.9 for West Ham. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Aston Villa 59%, draw 23%, West Ham 18%.
Safer route: Aston Villa or draw (82%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Aston Villa to win at 1.84 – 59% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Aston Villa or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.22, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aston Villa 1–0 West Ham. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aston Villa59%fair 1.70 · @1.84
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.70
West Ham18%fair 5.59 · @3.85
2.79Expected goals
1.86Aston Villa xG
0.93West Ham xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
2–011%
1–111%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.9 – 0.9 West Ham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✓
59%
1.70
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.69
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.90
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✓
37%
2.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.75
–
Form
Aston Villa – last 6
WLWLLD
19 Mar
vs Lille
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Manchester United
1–3
L
12 Mar
@ Lille
1–0
W
4 Mar
vs Chelsea
1–4
L
27 Feb
@ Wolves
0–2
L
21 Feb
vs Leeds
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
West Ham – last 2
WD
4 Mar
@ Fulham
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Burton Albion
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa and West Ham.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Our pick is Aston Villa or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Aston Villa vs West Ham?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and West Ham 18%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs West Ham?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–0 West Ham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa vs West Ham?
Aston Villa vs West Ham (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 15:15 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
