Arsenal host Chelsea in the Premier League on Sunday 1 March, with kick-off at 17:30 (WAT) at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal are 1st with 27 points from 10 games (top of the table), while Chelsea sit 5th on 16 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Arsenal's last 3: WDW Most recently they beat Tottenham 4–1 away. They are scoring freely – 3.3 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.0 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Chelsea. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 65%, draw 20%, Chelsea 15%.
Safer route: Arsenal or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.77.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Arsenal 2–0 Chelsea. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal65%fair 1.54 · @1.56
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @4.10
Chelsea15%fair 6.55 · @5.40
2.87Expected goals
2.02Arsenal xG
0.85Chelsea xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–012%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Arsenal 2.0 – 0.8 Chelsea expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
65%
1.54
1.56
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.42
Half-time result
Arsenal ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
42%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
12%
8.64
–
Form
Arsenal – last 3
WDW
22 Feb
@ Tottenham
4–1
W
18 Feb
@ Wolves
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Wigan
4–0
W
3.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Chelsea – last 2
DW
21 Feb
vs Burnley
1–1
D
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Chelsea.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Arsenal vs Chelsea?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Chelsea 15%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 2–0 Chelsea, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Arsenal vs Chelsea (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Emirates Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
