Burnley travel to Stamford Bridge in the Premier League on Saturday 21 February (16:00 WAT) to face Chelsea.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.4 for Chelsea and 0.7 for Burnley. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 63% and both teams to score at 51%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chelsea 76%, draw 14%, Burnley 10%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.05.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chelsea to win – a 76% chance at odds of 1.23. Predicted score: Chelsea 2–0 Burnley. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chelsea76%fair 1.32 · @1.23
Draw14%fair 6.90 · @7.00
Burnley10%fair 10.53 · @11.00
3.16Expected goals
2.44Chelsea xG
0.71Burnley xG
51%Both score
63%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–010%
3–010%
2–19%
1–17%
3–17%
From our goals model: Chelsea 2.4 – 0.7 Burnley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chelsea to win✗
76%
1.32
1.23
Double chance
Chelsea or draw✓
90%
1.10
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
59%
1.71
1.65
Half-time result
Chelsea ahead at half-time✓
55%
1.81
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chelsea / FT Chelsea✗
51%
1.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.88
–
Form
Chelsea – last 1
W
13 Feb
@ Hull City
4–0
W
4.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Burnley
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chelsea and Burnley.
Our pick is Chelsea to win with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Chelsea vs Burnley?
On our numbers Chelsea have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Burnley 10%.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Burnley?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 63% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chelsea vs Burnley?
Our predicted score is Chelsea 2–0 Burnley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Chelsea vs Burnley?
Chelsea vs Burnley (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Stamford Bridge.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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