Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.97
AS Roma vs Fiorentina preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees AS Roma take on Fiorentina on Monday 4 May, kicking off at 19:45 (WAT) at Stadio Olimpico. AS Roma are 3rd with 27 points from 11 games (in the top four), while Fiorentina sit 15th on 9 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
AS Roma's last 5: WLDLD Most recently they beat Pisa 3–0 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Fiorentina's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Sassuolo 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Fiorentina arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for AS Roma and 0.7 for Fiorentina. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 48%, both teams to score at 48%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AS Roma 65%, draw 18%, Fiorentina 17%.
Safer route: AS Roma or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.83.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: AS Roma 1–0 Fiorentina. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AS Roma65%fair 1.54 · @1.57
Draw18%fair 5.44 · @3.90
Fiorentina17%fair 5.93 · @5.60
2.53Expected goals
1.79AS Roma xG
0.73Fiorentina xG
48%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–111%
2–19%
0–08%
3–08%
From our goals model: AS Roma 1.8 – 0.7 Fiorentina expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AS Roma to win✓
65%
1.54
1.57
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.13
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.38
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.33
Half-time result
AS Roma ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.97
–
Form
AS Roma – last 6
WLDLDL
10 Apr
vs Pisa
3–0
W
5 Apr
@ Inter
2–5
L
19 Mar
vs Bologna
3–3
D
15 Mar
@ Como
1–2
L
12 Mar
@ Bologna
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Genoa
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Fiorentina – last 6
DDWWLW
26 Apr
vs Sassuolo
0–0
D
20 Apr
@ Lecce
1–1
D
16 Apr
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Lazio
1–0
W
9 Apr
@ Crystal Palace
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Raków Częstochowa
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Fiorentina.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Fiorentina 17%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 1–0 Fiorentina, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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