Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Atalanta to win @ 1.75 – our chance 63% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtalanta to win ✗63% · @1.75
Double chanceAtalanta or draw ✗88% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗15% · fair 6.86
Cagliari vs Atalanta preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Cagliari take on Atalanta on Monday 27 April, kicking off at 17:30 (WAT) at Unipol Domus. Cagliari are 9th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Atalanta sit 12th on 14 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cagliari's last 5: LLLDL Most recently they lost to Inter 0–3 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game.
Atalanta's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Lecce 3–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Atalanta arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 0.7 for Cagliari and 1.8 for Atalanta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Atalanta to win at 1.75 – 63% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atalanta or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cagliari 0–1 Atalanta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cagliari12%fair 8.50 · @4.40
Draw25%fair 3.97 · @3.65
Atalanta63%fair 1.59 · @1.75
2.53Expected goals
0.70Cagliari xG
1.84Atalanta xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–213%
1–110%
1–29%
0–38%
0–08%
From our goals model: Cagliari 0.7 – 1.8 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✗
63%
1.59
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Atalanta or draw✗
88%
1.13
1.20 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
72%
1.39
1.38
Half-time result
Atalanta ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
15%
6.86
–
Form
Cagliari – last 5
LLLDL
17 Apr
@ Inter
0–3
L
20 Mar
vs Napoli
0–1
L
15 Mar
@ Pisa
1–3
L
27 Feb
@ Parma
1–1
D
16 Feb
vs Lecce
0–2
L
0.4Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
WWLLDL
6 Apr
@ Lecce
3–0
W
22 Mar
vs Hellas Verona
1–0
W
18 Mar
@ Bayern München
1–4
L
10 Mar
vs Bayern München
1–6
L
4 Mar
@ Lazio
2–2
D
1 Mar
@ Sassuolo
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cagliari and Atalanta.
Our pick is Atalanta or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cagliari vs Atalanta?
On our numbers Cagliari have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atalanta 63%.
How many goals will there be in Cagliari vs Atalanta?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is Cagliari 0–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Cagliari vs Atalanta?
Cagliari vs Atalanta (Serie A) kicks off on Monday 27 April 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Unipol Domus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
