Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.42 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.42Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 51% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNapoli to win ✗37% · @2.64
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.38
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · @1.13
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.61
Napoli vs AS Roma preview and prediction
The match
AS Roma travel to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in the Serie A on Sunday 15 February (20:45 WAT) to face Napoli. Napoli are 10th with 15 points from 11 games (in the top half), while AS Roma sit 3rd on 27 points (in the top four). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Napoli and 1.0 for AS Roma. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Napoli 37%, draw 27%, AS Roma 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (51%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 51% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Napoli 1–1 AS Roma. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Napoli37%fair 2.68 · @2.64
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @2.78
AS Roma35%fair 2.82 · @3.05
2.09Expected goals
1.06Napoli xG
1.03AS Roma xG
51%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–114%
1–013%
0–113%
0–012%
2–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Napoli 1.1 – 1.0 AS Roma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Napoli to win✗
37%
2.68
2.64
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.38
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.94
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.60
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
84%
1.19
1.13
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
21%
4.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.61
–
Form
Napoli
No recent results on record.
AS Roma
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Napoli and AS Roma.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Napoli vs AS Roma?
On our numbers Napoli have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and AS Roma 35%.
How many goals will there be in Napoli vs AS Roma?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Napoli vs AS Roma?
Our predicted score is Napoli 1–1 AS Roma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Napoli vs AS Roma?
Napoli vs AS Roma (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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