Good pick · fair odds 1.47 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultPoland U21 to win ✓68% · @1.57
Double chancePoland U21 or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓66% · fair 1.52
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.19
Poland U21 vs Sweden U21 preview and prediction
The match
Poland U21 host Sweden U21 in the UEFA U21 Championship Qualification on Wednesday 30 September, with kick-off at 17:00 (WAT) at Arena Katowice. Poland U21 are 3rd with 18 points from 10 games, while Sweden U21 sit 3rd on 18 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sweden U21's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Finland U21 1–3 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 3.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.4 for Poland U21 and 1.0 for Sweden U21. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 66% and both teams to score at 60%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Poland U21 68%, draw 19%, Sweden U21 13%.
Safer route: Poland U21 or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Poland U21 to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Poland U21 2–0 Sweden U21. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Poland U2168%fair 1.47 · @1.57
Draw19%fair 5.16 · @3.80
Sweden U2113%fair 7.86 · @4.33
3.38Expected goals
2.40Poland U21 xG
0.98Sweden U21 xG
60%Both score
66%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–08%
1–18%
3–08%
3–18%
From our goals model: Poland U21 2.4 – 1.0 Sweden U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Poland U21 to win✓
68%
1.47
1.57 ▲
Double chance
Poland U21 or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Poland U21 ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Poland U21 / FT Poland U21✓
46%
2.18
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.19
–
Form
Poland U21 – last 2
WW
31 Mar
@ Montenegro U21
1–0
W
27 Mar
vs Armenia U21
4–1
W
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sweden U21 – last 3
LLD
4 Jun
vs Finland U21
1–3
L
31 Mar
vs Italy U21
0–4
L
27 Mar
vs Montenegro U21
2–2
D
1.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Poland U21 and Sweden U21.
What is the prediction for Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
Our pick is Poland U21 to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
On our numbers Poland U21 have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Sweden U21 13%.
How many goals will there be in Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 66% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
Our predicted score is Poland U21 2–0 Sweden U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Poland U21 vs Sweden U21?
Poland U21 vs Sweden U21 (UEFA U21 Championship Qualification) kicks off on Wednesday 30 September 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Katowice.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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