Value bet: Malta to win @ 3.45 – our chance 35% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLuxembourg to win ✓40% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.15
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.32
Malta vs Luxembourg preview and prediction
The match
Malta host Luxembourg in the UEFA Nations League on Thursday 26 March, with kick-off at 18:00 (WAT) at Ta'Qali National Stadium. Malta are 1st with 7 points from 3 games, while Luxembourg sit 4th on 3 points.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Malta and 0.9 for Luxembourg. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malta 35%, draw 26%, Luxembourg 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Malta to win at 3.45 – 35% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Malta 0–0 Luxembourg. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malta35%fair 2.88 · @3.45
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.98
Luxembourg40%fair 2.52 · @2.24
1.77Expected goals
0.84Malta xG
0.93Luxembourg xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
0–116%
1–014%
1–113%
0–27%
1–26%
From our goals model: Malta 0.8 – 0.9 Luxembourg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Luxembourg to win✓
40%
2.52
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.48
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.17
1.15
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.32
–
Form
Malta
No recent results on record.
Luxembourg
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malta and Luxembourg.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Malta vs Luxembourg?
On our numbers Malta have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Luxembourg 40%.
How many goals will there be in Malta vs Luxembourg?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malta vs Luxembourg?
Our predicted score is Malta 0–0 Luxembourg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Malta vs Luxembourg?
Malta vs Luxembourg (UEFA Nations League) kicks off on Thursday 26 March 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Ta'Qali National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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