Value bet: Minija to win @ 2.38 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultMinija to win45% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win80% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.58
GoalsOver 1.5 goals78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.06
Minija vs Šiauliai preview and prediction
The match
Minija host Šiauliai in the A Lyga on Sunday 15 November, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Kretinga Stadium.
Form guide
Minija's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with Babrungas 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Šiauliai's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Panevėžys 2–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Minija and 1.0 for Šiauliai. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Minija 45%, draw 20%, Šiauliai 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.58.
Value angle: Minija to win at 2.38 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Prediction
Our pick: Over 1.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Minija 1–1 Šiauliai. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Minija45%fair 2.24 · @2.38
Draw20%fair 4.98 · @3.42
Šiauliai35%fair 2.84 · @2.44
2.98Expected goals
1.95Minija xG
1.04Šiauliai xG
61%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–010%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Minija 1.9 – 1.0 Šiauliai expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Minija to win
45%
2.24
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
80%
1.25
1.21
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.63
1.58
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
78%
1.29
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.80
1.71
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
66%
1.51
1.35
Half-time result
Minija ahead at half-time
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Minija / FT Minija
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.06
–
Form
Minija – last 6
DWDWLL
11 Nov
@ Babrungas
0–0
D
7 Nov
vs Garliava
2–0
W
4 Nov
@ Tauras
3–3
D
31 Oct
vs Atmosfera
3–1
W
24 Oct
@ BFA
1–2
L
17 Oct
vs Babrungas
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Šiauliai – last 6
WWDLDL
8 Nov
@ Panevėžys
2–1
W
31 Oct
vs Džiugas Telšiai
2–1
W
25 Oct
@ Banga
0–0
D
20 Sep
vs Kauno Žalgiris
0–2
L
13 Sep
vs Hegelmann Litauen
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Minija and Šiauliai.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Minija vs Šiauliai?
On our numbers Minija have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Šiauliai 35%.
How many goals will there be in Minija vs Šiauliai?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Minija vs Šiauliai?
Our predicted score is Minija 1–1 Šiauliai, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Minija vs Šiauliai?
Minija vs Šiauliai (A Lyga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Kretinga Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
