New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic prediction & analysis
74%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.30
8/10Rating
1.30Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSacramento Republic to win37% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–27% · fair 13.47
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic preview and prediction
The match
New Mexico United host Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship on Monday 16 November, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Sacramento Republic sit 2nd on 51 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: WWWLW Most recently they beat Colorado Springs 4–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sacramento Republic's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat El Paso Locomotive 2–1 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 27 September 2026, finished New Mexico United 2–3 Sacramento Republic. Across their last 2 meetings New Mexico United have won 1, Sacramento Republic 1, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for New Mexico United and 1.2 for Sacramento Republic. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 37%, draw 27%, Sacramento Republic 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Prediction
The Footrivo pick: Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: New Mexico United 1–1 Sacramento Republic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United37%fair 2.73 · @2.70
Draw27%fair 3.76 · @3.30
Sacramento Republic37%fair 2.73 · @2.30
2.46Expected goals
1.31New Mexico United xG
1.15Sacramento Republic xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
1–27%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.3 – 1.2 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
New Mexico United
Sacramento Republic
Attack vs USL Championship average
+23%
+10%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
-28%
Our expected goals here
1.33
1.04
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Sacramento Republic 37%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 1–1 Sacramento Republic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic?
New Mexico United vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Monday 16 November 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
