Primera División Apertura · UruguayDeportivo Maldonado vs Cerro prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 53% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Deportivo Maldonado 1.6 – 0.7 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Deportivo Maldonado hold the edge on home soil with a 59% chance of winning, against 18% for Cerro.
Deportivo Maldonado have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 per game. Cerro have 5 points from their last 6 (1W 2D 3L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.7 conceded. Deportivo Maldonado come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.6 for Deportivo Maldonado, 0.7 for Cerro). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 53%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (12%), 1–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Deportivo Maldonado have won 1, Cerro have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 77% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.29. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.20 is our value angle (53% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Deportivo Maldonado to win | 59% | 1.69 | 1.65 |
| Double chance | Deportivo Maldonado or draw | 82% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score | 53% | 1.89 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals | 67% | 1.48 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.73 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals | 77% | 1.29 | 1.22 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time | 44% | 2.28 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado | 36% | 2.78 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 | 15% | 6.61 | – |
Form
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
| 3 Nov | @ Albion FC | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Oct | @ Porongos | 4–0 | W |
| 24 Oct | vs Danubio | 2–1 | W |
| 20 Oct | @ Club Nacional | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Albion FC | 4–1 | W |
| 10 Oct | vs Liverpool Montevideo | 1–1 | D |
Cerro – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Central Espanol | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | @ Atletico Torque | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Oct | vs Cerro Largo | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ Defensor Sporting | 3–2 | W |
| 4 Oct | vs Wanderers | 0–2 | L |
| 27 Sep | @ Juventud | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 24 Sep 2026 | Cerro v Deportivo Maldonado | 1–2 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
On our numbers Deportivo Maldonado have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerro 18%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro?
Deportivo Maldonado vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Saturday 14 November 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.