New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
New Mexico United or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
1
Value bet: New Mexico United to win @ 1.95 – our chance 64% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNew Mexico United to win ✓64% · @1.95
Double chanceNew Mexico United or draw ✓84% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.58
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising preview and prediction
The match
The USL Championship sees New Mexico United take on Phoenix Rising on Monday 2 November, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Phoenix Rising sit 8th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat El Paso Locomotive 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Phoenix Rising's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Lexington 3–3 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 October 2026, finished New Mexico United 2–1 Phoenix Rising. Across their last 3 meetings New Mexico United have won 2, Phoenix Rising 1, with 0 draws and 3.3 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 2.0 for New Mexico United and 0.9 for Phoenix Rising. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 64%, draw 20%, Phoenix Rising 16%.
Safer route: New Mexico United or draw (84%) at 1.30.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.44.
Value angle: New Mexico United to win at 1.95 – 64% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was New Mexico United or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: New Mexico United 1–0 Phoenix Rising. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United64%fair 1.56 · @1.95
Draw20%fair 4.95 · @3.30
Phoenix Rising16%fair 6.30 · @3.30
2.83Expected goals
1.97New Mexico United xG
0.86Phoenix Rising xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 2.0 – 0.9 Phoenix Rising expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
Our pick is New Mexico United or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Phoenix Rising 16%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 1–0 Phoenix Rising, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising?
New Mexico United vs Phoenix Rising (USL Championship) kicks off on Monday 2 November 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
