Coppa Italia Serie D · Italy
Prato vs Ternana prediction & analysis
Prato or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.25 – our chance 54% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Prato 2.3 – 1.1 Ternana expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Prato are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 15% for Ternana.
Prato have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (3W 3D 0L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 0.7 per game. Ternana have 14 points from their last 6 (4W 2D 0L), averaging 2.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.3 for Prato, 1.1 for Ternana). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Prato have won 1, Ternana have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Prato or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Over 2.5 goals at 2.25 is our value angle (54% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Prato to win ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | 1.62 |
| Double chance | Prato or draw ✗ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.33 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 86% | 1.17 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 54% | 1.84 | 2.25 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 55% | 1.81 | – |
| Half-time result | Prato ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Prato / FT Prato ✗ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.34 | – |
Form
Prato – last 6
| 25 Oct | vs Flaminia | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Oct | @ Gavorrano | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs San Donato Tavarnelle | 2–0 | W |
| 7 Oct | @ Terranuova Traiana | 3–0 | W |
| 3 Oct | @ Terranuova Traiana | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Sep | vs Ghivizzano Borgo Mozzano | 2–1 | W |
Ternana – last 6
| 25 Oct | @ Progresso | 1–0 | W |
| 21 Oct | vs Recanatese | 5–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | vs Robur Siena | 2–1 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Lucchese | 2–2 | D |
| 4 Oct | vs Montevarchi Calcio | 4–1 | W |
| 27 Sep | @ Scandicci | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 6 Sep 2026 | Prato v Ternana | 1–0 |
More Coppa Italia Serie D predictions
League hub
Valenzana3
Biellese0
Caldiero Terme0
Cjarlins Muzane1
Gelbison0
Igea Virtus1
Real Normanna6
L'Aquila0
Piacenza2
Sasso Marconi Zola0
Teramo0
Latte Dolce2
Villa Valle1
Brusaporto0
Robur Siena2
Ancona2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Prato vs Ternana?
Our pick is Prato or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Prato vs Ternana?
On our numbers Prato have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ternana 15%.
How many goals will there be in Prato vs Ternana?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Prato vs Ternana?
Prato vs Ternana (Coppa Italia Serie D) kicks off on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.