Ulaanbaatar host Deren in the Premier League on Thursday 29 October, with kick-off at 09:00 (WAT). Ulaanbaatar are 1st with 54 points from 23 games, while Deren sit 3rd on 45 points.
Form guide
Ulaanbaatar's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Central Stallions 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 4.3 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deren's last 5: WWLDW Most recently they beat Hunters 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 3.5 per game.
Ulaanbaatar arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 2.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 July 2026, finished Ulaanbaatar 2–3 Deren. Across their last 3 meetings Ulaanbaatar have won 2, Deren 1, with 0 draws and 3.0 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.5 goals: 2.8 for Ulaanbaatar and 1.7 for Deren. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score in 75% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ulaanbaatar 58%, draw 21%, Deren 22%.
Both teams to score: yes (75%) at 1.22.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Ulaanbaatar 2–1 Deren. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ulaanbaatar58%fair 1.73 · @1.75
Draw21%fair 4.82 · @4.75
Deren22%fair 4.64 · @2.90
4.50Expected goals
2.76Ulaanbaatar xG
1.74Deren xG
75%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–17%
3–17%
2–26%
3–26%
1–15%
4–15%
From our goals model: Ulaanbaatar 2.8 – 1.7 Deren expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
On our numbers Ulaanbaatar have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Deren 22%.
How many goals will there be in Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 75% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
Our predicted score is Ulaanbaatar 2–1 Deren, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Ulaanbaatar vs Deren?
Ulaanbaatar vs Deren (Premier League) kicks off on Thursday 29 October 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
