Value bet: Ferroviária to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMaringá to win ✗45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.65
Maringá vs Ferroviária preview and prediction
The match
Maringá host Ferroviária in the Serie C on Sunday 18 October, with kick-off at 21:00 (WAT). Maringá are 1st with 11 points from 6 games, while Ferroviária sit 1st on 11 points. Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Maringá's last 5: WDDWL Most recently they beat Floresta 2–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ferroviária's last 5: LDWWD Most recently they lost to Paysandu 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 April 2026, finished Maringá 3–2 Ferroviária.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Maringá and 1.1 for Ferroviária. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Ferroviária to win at 3.40 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.85, above our fair price of 1.73, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Maringá 1–1 Ferroviária. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Maringá45%fair 2.23 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.88
Ferroviária32%fair 3.16 · @3.40
2.48Expected goals
1.38Maringá xG
1.10Ferroviária xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Maringá 1.4 – 1.1 Ferroviária expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Maringá vs Ferroviária?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Maringá vs Ferroviária?
On our numbers Maringá have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ferroviária 32%.
How many goals will there be in Maringá vs Ferroviária?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Maringá vs Ferroviária?
Our predicted score is Maringá 1–1 Ferroviária, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Maringá vs Ferroviária?
Maringá vs Ferroviária (Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
