Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
7/10Rating
1.53Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 61% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultYarmouk to win ✗68% · @1.53
Double chanceYarmouk or draw ✓90% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓68% · fair 1.47
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓61% · @1.90
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗24% · fair 4.21
Yarmouk vs Burgan preview and prediction
The match
The Division 1 sees Yarmouk take on Burgan on Wednesday 14 October, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT). Yarmouk are 2nd with 7 points from 3 games, while Burgan sit 5th on 4 points. Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Yarmouk's last 5: WLDWL Most recently they beat Al Sahel 3–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Burgan's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Sporty 4–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 August 2026, finished Yarmouk 3–1 Burgan.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.5 for Yarmouk and 0.3 for Burgan. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 61% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Yarmouk 68%, draw 23%, Burgan 10%.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 – 61% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Yarmouk to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Yarmouk 1–0 Burgan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Yarmouk68%fair 1.48 · @1.53
Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.70
Burgan10%fair 10.42 · @5.25
1.84Expected goals
1.49Yarmouk xG
0.35Burgan xG
32%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–024%
2–018%
0–016%
3–09%
1–18%
2–16%
From our goals model: Yarmouk 1.5 – 0.3 Burgan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Yarmouk to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Yarmouk vs Burgan?
On our numbers Yarmouk have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Burgan 10%.
How many goals will there be in Yarmouk vs Burgan?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 32% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Yarmouk vs Burgan?
Our predicted score is Yarmouk 1–0 Burgan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Yarmouk vs Burgan?
Yarmouk vs Burgan (Division 1) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
