Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Indonesia to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndonesia to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceIndonesia or draw ✓80% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.81
Indonesia vs Thailand preview and prediction
The match
The sees Indonesia take on Thailand on Monday 5 October, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium.
Form guide
Indonesia's last 5: WDWDL Most recently they beat Bangladesh 9–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.5 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Thailand's last 5: LWWDL Most recently they lost to Philippines 1–2 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Indonesia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.3 for Indonesia and 1.4 for Thailand. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 71% and both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Indonesia 57%, draw 23%, Thailand 20%.
Safer route: Indonesia or draw (80%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Indonesia to win at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Indonesia or draw – a 80% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Indonesia 2–1 Thailand. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Indonesia57%fair 1.74 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.30
Thailand20%fair 5.03 · @3.40
3.67Expected goals
2.32Indonesia xG
1.35Thailand xG
60%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
2–26%
1–06%
From our goals model: Indonesia 2.3 – 1.4 Thailand expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Indonesia to win✗
57%
1.74
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Indonesia or draw✓
80%
1.25
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Indonesia ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Indonesia / FT Indonesia✗
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.81
–
Form
Indonesia – last 6
WDWDLW
1 Oct
vs Bangladesh
9–2
W
28 Sep
@ Malaysia
0–0
D
25 Sep
vs Singapore
2–0
W
7 Aug
@ Singapore
1–1
D
3 Aug
vs Vietnam
0–3
L
31 Jul
@ Timor-Leste
3–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Thailand – last 6
LWWDLL
2 Oct
vs Philippines
1–2
L
29 Sep
vs Vietnam
2–0
W
26 Sep
@ Pakistan
4–0
W
26 Aug
@ Vietnam
2–2
D
22 Aug
vs Vietnam
0–2
L
18 Aug
vs Singapore
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Indonesia and Thailand.
Our pick is Indonesia or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Indonesia vs Thailand?
On our numbers Indonesia have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Thailand 20%.
How many goals will there be in Indonesia vs Thailand?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Indonesia vs Thailand?
Our predicted score is Indonesia 2–1 Thailand, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Indonesia vs Thailand?
Indonesia vs Thailand () kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Gelora Bung Karno Madya Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
