ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
ATK Mohun Bagan to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.90 – our chance 57% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultATK Mohun Bagan to win ✗67% · @1.57
Double chanceATK Mohun Bagan or draw ✓86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 10.25
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab preview and prediction
The match
ATK Mohun Bagan host Minerva Punjab in the IFA Shield on Sunday 4 October, with kick-off at 12:30 (WAT) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Form guide
ATK Mohun Bagan's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with NorthEast United 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Minerva Punjab's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat East Bengal II 1–0 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.3 for ATK Mohun Bagan and 1.0 for Minerva Punjab. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.90 – 57% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was ATK Mohun Bagan to win – a 67% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.49, so there is value in it. Predicted score: ATK Mohun Bagan 2–0 Minerva Punjab. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ATK Mohun Bagan67%fair 1.49 · @1.57
Draw19%fair 5.26 · @3.75
Minerva Punjab14%fair 7.14 · @4.75
3.34Expected goals
2.34ATK Mohun Bagan xG
0.99Minerva Punjab xG
52%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–08%
1–18%
3–08%
3–18%
From our goals model: ATK Mohun Bagan 2.3 – 1.0 Minerva Punjab expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ATK Mohun Bagan to win✗
67%
1.49
1.57 ▲
Double chance
ATK Mohun Bagan or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
1.90 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
ATK Mohun Bagan ahead at half-time✗
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ATK Mohun Bagan / FT ATK Mohun Bagan✗
45%
2.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
10.25
–
Form
ATK Mohun Bagan – last 6
DWWDDD
29 Sep
vs NorthEast United
1–1
D
23 Sep
vs Sreenidi Deccan
6–0
W
21 May
vs SC Delhi
2–1
W
17 May
vs East Bengal II
1–1
D
12 May
vs Inter Kashi
0–0
D
9 May
@ Goa
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Minerva Punjab – last 6
WWLLDW
30 Sep
@ East Bengal II
1–0
W
27 Sep
@ Calcutta Customs
7–0
W
29 Aug
vs Horley Town
0–2
L
21 May
vs Mumbai City
0–2
L
11 May
@ East Bengal II
0–0
D
6 May
vs Chennaiyin
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ATK Mohun Bagan and Minerva Punjab.
What is the prediction for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
Our pick is ATK Mohun Bagan to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
On our numbers ATK Mohun Bagan have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Minerva Punjab 14%.
How many goals will there be in ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
Our predicted score is ATK Mohun Bagan 2–0 Minerva Punjab, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab?
ATK Mohun Bagan vs Minerva Punjab (IFA Shield) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
