Premier League · Jamaica · Anthony Spaulding Sports ComplexChapelton vs Waterhouse prediction & analysis
Waterhouse or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
Value bet: Waterhouse to win @ 1.73 – our chance 66% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Chapelton 0.8 – 2.0 Waterhouse expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Waterhouse travel as clear favourites – 66% to win, against 13% for Chapelton.
Chapelton have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 2.7 per game. Waterhouse have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.8 goals (0.8 for Chapelton, 2.0 for Waterhouse). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12%), 0–1 (12%), 1–2 (10%).
Our pick is Waterhouse or draw at a 87% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is better than our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Waterhouse to win at 1.73 is our value angle (66% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Waterhouse to win ✓ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.73 ▲ |
| Double chance | Waterhouse or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 56% | 1.78 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 69% | 1.45 | – |
| Half-time result | Waterhouse ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Waterhouse / FT Waterhouse ✓ | 43% | 2.34 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–2 ✗ | 12% | 8.09 | – |
Form
Chapelton – last 6
| 27 Sep | @ Tivoli Gardens | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Molynes United | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | @ Montego Bay United | 0–2 | L |
| 6 May | vs Arnett Gardens | 2–7 | L |
| 24 Apr | @ Mount Pleasant Academy | 2–5 | L |
| 15 Apr | @ Treasure Beach | 3–0 | W |
Waterhouse – last 6
| 28 Sep | vs Treasure Beach | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sep | @ Humble Lions | 5–0 | W |
| 14 May | vs Cavalier | 0–2 | L |
| 11 May | @ Cavalier | 2–2 | D |
| 6 May | vs Dunbeholden | 4–0 | W |
| 28 Apr | @ Mount Pleasant Academy | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapelton and Waterhouse.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tru-Juice | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 2 |  Waterhouse | 8 | +16 | 18 |
| 3 |  Racing United | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Montego Bay United | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mount Pleasant Academy | 8 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 |  Tivoli Gardens | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 |  Arnett Gardens | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 |  Portmore United | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 |  Cavalier | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Chapelton | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 |  Dunbeholden | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Molynes United | 9 | -11 | 7 |
| 13 |  Treasure Beach | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 |  Humble Lions | 8 | -19 | 2 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Chapelton vs Waterhouse?
Our pick is Waterhouse or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Chapelton vs Waterhouse?
On our numbers Chapelton have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Waterhouse 66%.
How many goals will there be in Chapelton vs Waterhouse?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Chapelton vs Waterhouse?
Chapelton vs Waterhouse (Premier League) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 23:05 (West Africa Time) at Anthony Spaulding Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.