Premier League · Jamaica · Steths Sports ComplexTreasure Beach vs Humble Lions prediction & analysis
Treasure Beach to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Treasure Beach 2.3 – 1.0 Humble Lions expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Treasure Beach are clear favourites at home with a 66% chance of winning, against 15% for Humble Lions.
Treasure Beach have taken 7 points from their last 6 matches (2W 1D 3L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.8 per game. Humble Lions have 0 points from their last 3 (0W 0D 3L), averaging 0.3 scored and 4.0 conceded. Treasure Beach come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.3 goals (2.3 for Treasure Beach, 1.0 for Humble Lions). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (10%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Treasure Beach to win at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.57 is better than our fair price of 1.52, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Treasure Beach to win ✗ | 66% | 1.52 | 1.57 |
| Double chance | Treasure Beach or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.90 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 84% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 61% | 1.64 | 1.65 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.74 | – |
| Half-time result | Treasure Beach ahead at half-time ✓ | 49% | 2.04 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Treasure Beach / FT Treasure Beach ✗ | 44% | 2.29 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.26 | – |
Form
Treasure Beach – last 6
| 28 Sep | @ Waterhouse | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Tivoli Gardens | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Sep | @ Molynes United | 2–3 | L |
| 6 May | vs Molynes United | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Apr | vs Tivoli Gardens | 4–2 | W |
| 24 Apr | @ Waterhouse | 2–1 | W |
Humble Lions – last 3
| 27 Sep | @ Portmore United | 1–4 | L |
| 21 Sep | vs Waterhouse | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Tivoli Gardens | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Treasure Beach and Humble Lions.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tru-Juice | 9 | +14 | 20 |
| 2 |  Waterhouse | 8 | +16 | 18 |
| 3 |  Racing United | 9 | +8 | 17 |
| 4 |  Montego Bay United | 9 | +5 | 16 |
| 5 |  Mount Pleasant Academy | 8 | 0 | 14 |
| 6 |  Tivoli Gardens | 9 | +5 | 12 |
| 7 |  Arnett Gardens | 8 | +4 | 10 |
| 8 |  Portmore United | 7 | +4 | 10 |
| 9 |  Cavalier | 7 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 |  Chapelton | 9 | -7 | 10 |
| 11 |  Dunbeholden | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 12 |  Molynes United | 9 | -11 | 7 |
| 13 |  Treasure Beach | 9 | -10 | 6 |
| 14 |  Humble Lions | 8 | -19 | 2 |
More Premier League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Treasure Beach vs Humble Lions?
Our pick is Treasure Beach to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Treasure Beach vs Humble Lions?
On our numbers Treasure Beach have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Humble Lions 15%.
How many goals will there be in Treasure Beach vs Humble Lions?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Treasure Beach vs Humble Lions?
Treasure Beach vs Humble Lions (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 21:30 (West Africa Time) at Steths Sports Complex.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.