Value bet: Atlético Choloma to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtlético Choloma to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.21
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.56
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗76% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.35
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente preview and prediction
The match
Atlético Choloma host Atletico Independiente in the Liga Nacional on Friday 6 November, with kick-off at 00:15 (WAT) at Estadio Ruben Deras. Atlético Choloma are 9th with 14 points from 14 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico Independiente sit 10th on 13 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atlético Choloma's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to CD Olimpia 0–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Atletico Independiente's last 5: LDLDL Most recently they lost to Estrella Roja 1–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Atlético Choloma arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 10 August 2026, finished Atletico Independiente 2–1 Atlético Choloma.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.7 for Atlético Choloma and 0.9 for Atletico Independiente. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 61%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atlético Choloma 59%, draw 18%, Atletico Independiente 23%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.56.
Value angle: Atlético Choloma to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.37. Predicted score: Atlético Choloma 1–0 Atletico Independiente. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atlético Choloma59%fair 1.70 · @1.95
Draw18%fair 5.57 · @3.42
Atletico Independiente23%fair 4.32 · @3.15
2.67Expected goals
1.73Atlético Choloma xG
0.94Atletico Independiente xG
61%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Atlético Choloma 1.7 – 0.9 Atletico Independiente expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.37.
Who will win Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
On our numbers Atlético Choloma have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Atletico Independiente 23%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
Our predicted score is Atlético Choloma 1–0 Atletico Independiente, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente?
Atlético Choloma vs Atletico Independiente (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 6 November 2026 at 00:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ruben Deras.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
