Cup · Cyprus · AEK Arena
AEK Larnaca vs Akritas prediction & analysis
Over 2.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.38 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: AEK Larnaca 3.0 – 0.8 Akritas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
AEK Larnaca are clear favourites at home with a 79% chance of winning, against 5% for Akritas.
AEK Larnaca have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.8 per game. Akritas have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded. AEK Larnaca come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.8 goals (3.0 for AEK Larnaca, 0.8 for Akritas). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10%), 3–0 (10%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, AEK Larnaca have won 1, Akritas have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 3.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.30 is close to our fair price of 1.38.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | AEK Larnaca to win ✗ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.06 |
| Double chance | AEK Larnaca or draw ✓ | 95% | 1.06 | – |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✗ | 52% | 1.92 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.13 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.38 | 1.30 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | – |
| Half-time result | AEK Larnaca ahead at half-time ✗ | 61% | 1.63 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT AEK Larnaca / FT AEK Larnaca ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 10% | 9.72 | – |
Form
AEK Larnaca – last 6
| 18 Oct | @ Aris | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Oct | vs Omonia Aradippou | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Sep | @ Omonia 29is Maiou | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Pafos | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Nea Salamis | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | vs Apoel Nicosia | 3–1 | W |
Akritas – last 6
| 17 Oct | vs Iraklis Yerolakkou | 0–0 | D |
| 10 Oct | @ PAEEK | 1–2 | L |
| 19 Sep | vs ASIL Lysi | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sep | @ Ermis | 0–2 | L |
| 14 Aug | @ Enosis | 3–2 | W |
| 1 May | vs Ethnikos Achna | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 6 Mar 2026 | AEK Larnaca v Akritas | 3–0 |
More Cup predictions
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APEA0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for AEK Larnaca vs Akritas?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AEK Larnaca vs Akritas?
On our numbers AEK Larnaca have a 79% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Akritas 5%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Larnaca vs Akritas?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is AEK Larnaca vs Akritas?
AEK Larnaca vs Akritas (Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 21 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at AEK Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.