Value bet: Union Comercio to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultUnion Comercio to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.81
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.64
Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio preview and prediction
The match
Union Comercio travel to face Ayacucho FC in the Segunda División on Sunday 18 October (19:00 WAT). Ayacucho FC are 7th with 19 points from 16 games (in the bottom three), while Union Comercio sit 1st on 32 points (top of the table). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ayacucho FC's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Union Comercio 0–5 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 2.5 conceded.
Union Comercio's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Ayacucho FC 5–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Union Comercio arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 12 October 2026, finished Union Comercio 5–0 Ayacucho FC.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.0 for Ayacucho FC and 1.3 for Union Comercio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 45%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ayacucho FC 30%, draw 22%, Union Comercio 48%.
Value angle: Union Comercio to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 57% chance at odds of 1.70. Predicted score: Ayacucho FC 0–1 Union Comercio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ayacucho FC30%fair 3.32 · @2.80
Draw22%fair 4.51 · @3.10
Union Comercio48%fair 2.10 · @2.30
2.33Expected goals
0.98Ayacucho FC xG
1.34Union Comercio xG
45%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–29%
From our goals model: Ayacucho FC 1.0 – 1.3 Union Comercio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.70.
Who will win Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?
On our numbers Ayacucho FC have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Union Comercio 48%.
How many goals will there be in Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?
Our predicted score is Ayacucho FC 0–1 Union Comercio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio?
Ayacucho FC vs Union Comercio (Segunda División) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
