Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Al Ahed to win @ 1.80 – our chance 64% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAl Ahed to win ✗64% · @1.80
Double chanceAl Ahed or draw ✓87% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.34
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.56
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed preview and prediction
The match
Tripoli SC host Al Ahed in the Premier League on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT). Tripoli SC are 7th with 7 points from 6 games (in the bottom half), while Al Ahed sit 4th on 9 points (in the top four). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Al Ahed's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with Jwaaya FC 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 0.8 for Tripoli SC and 1.9 for Al Ahed. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 44%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tripoli SC 13%, draw 24%, Al Ahed 64%.
Safer route: Al Ahed or draw (87%) at 1.20.
Value angle: Al Ahed to win at 1.80 – 64% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Al Ahed or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tripoli SC 0–1 Al Ahed. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tripoli SC13%fair 7.81 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @3.40
Al Ahed64%fair 1.57 · @1.80
2.67Expected goals
0.76Tripoli SC xG
1.92Al Ahed xG
44%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
0–213%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tripoli SC 0.8 – 1.9 Al Ahed expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Al Ahed to win✗
64%
1.57
1.80 ▲
Double chance
Al Ahed or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.79
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Half-time result
Al Ahed ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Al Ahed / FT Al Ahed✗
41%
2.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.56
–
Form
Tripoli SC
No recent results on record.
Al Ahed – last 6
DLDLLD
1 Aug
vs Jwaaya FC
2–2
D
28 Jul
@ Al Nejmeh
1–2
L
24 Jul
vs Al Ansar
1–1
D
20 Jul
@ Jwaaya FC
0–2
L
16 Jul
vs Al Nejmeh
0–2
L
12 Jul
@ Al Ansar
3–3
D
1.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tripoli SC and Al Ahed.
Our pick is Al Ahed or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
On our numbers Tripoli SC have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Al Ahed 64%.
How many goals will there be in Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
Our predicted score is Tripoli SC 0–1 Al Ahed, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed?
Tripoli SC vs Al Ahed (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
