Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.85 – our chance 57% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChaves to win ✓70% · @1.25
Double chanceChaves or draw ✓86% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.85
Chaves vs Os Marialvas preview and prediction
The match
The Taça De Portugal sees Chaves take on Os Marialvas on Friday 16 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Form guide
Chaves's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Lusitânia Lourosa 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Os Marialvas's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Sertanense 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Os Marialvas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 2.4 for Chaves and 0.9 for Os Marialvas. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Chaves 70%, draw 16%, Os Marialvas 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.85 – 57% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chaves to win – a 70% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Chaves 2–0 Os Marialvas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chaves70%fair 1.43 · @1.25
Draw16%fair 6.12 · @4.80
Os Marialvas14%fair 7.20 · @8.50
3.33Expected goals
2.38Chaves xG
0.95Os Marialvas xG
57%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–18%
3–08%
3–18%
From our goals model: Chaves 2.4 – 0.9 Os Marialvas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chaves to win✓
70%
1.43
1.25
Double chance
Chaves or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.85 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Chaves ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chaves / FT Chaves✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.85
–
Form
Chaves – last 6
DLWWLD
11 Oct
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
4 Oct
@ Farense
0–4
L
20 Sep
@ Guarda
3–2
W
13 Sep
vs Feirense
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Felgueiras 1932
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs AVS
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Os Marialvas – last 6
DWWWWL
11 Oct
vs Sertanense
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Ovarense
1–0
W
13 Sep
@ Nazarenos
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Fátima
3–0
W
30 Aug
@ AD Fornos Algodres
4–0
W
23 Aug
vs Oliveira Hospital
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chaves and Os Marialvas.
What is the prediction for Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Our pick is Chaves to win with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
On our numbers Chaves have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Os Marialvas 14%.
How many goals will there be in Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Our predicted score is Chaves 2–0 Os Marialvas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Chaves vs Os Marialvas?
Chaves vs Os Marialvas (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Chaves.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
