Value bet: Mebrat Hayl to win @ 2.80 – our chance 41% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMebrat Hayl to win ✗41% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.50
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓57% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.40
Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi preview and prediction
The match
Mebrat Hayl host Negelle Arsi in the Premier League on Friday 16 October, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT). Mebrat Hayl are 8th with 7 points from 5 games (in the top half), while Negelle Arsi sit 1st on 11 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Mebrat Hayl's last 5: LWDWD Most recently they lost to Adama Kenema 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Negelle Arsi's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with Kedus Giorgis 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 15 March 2026, finished Negelle Arsi 0–2 Mebrat Hayl.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.8 for Mebrat Hayl and 0.7 for Negelle Arsi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 81% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Mebrat Hayl to win at 2.80 – 41% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mebrat Hayl41%fair 2.43 · @2.80
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @2.40
Negelle Arsi32%fair 3.14 · @2.80
1.50Expected goals
0.83Mebrat Hayl xG
0.67Negelle Arsi xG
43%Both score
19%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–019%
0–115%
1–112%
2–08%
2–15%
From our goals model: Mebrat Hayl 0.8 – 0.7 Negelle Arsi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
On our numbers Mebrat Hayl have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Negelle Arsi 32%.
How many goals will there be in Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 43% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
Our predicted score is Mebrat Hayl 0–0 Negelle Arsi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi?
Mebrat Hayl vs Negelle Arsi (Premier League) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
