Value bet: Yacoub El Mansour to win @ 1.90 – our chance 64% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultYacoub El Mansour to win ✓64% · @1.90
Double chanceYacoub El Mansour or draw ✓88% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓69% · fair 1.46
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓25% · fair 4.05
Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi preview and prediction
The match
The Botola 2 sees Yacoub El Mansour take on Riadi Salmi on Sunday 11 October, kicking off at 18:00 (WAT). Yacoub El Mansour are 4th with 14 points from 7 games (in the top four), while Riadi Salmi sit 13th on 5 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Yacoub El Mansour's last 5: WWWDL Most recently they beat KAC Kenitra 1–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Riadi Salmi's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with El Massira 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Yacoub El Mansour arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 1.3 for Yacoub El Mansour and 0.4 for Riadi Salmi. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Safer route: Yacoub El Mansour or draw (88%) at 1.17.
Value angle: Yacoub El Mansour to win at 1.90 – 64% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Yacoub El Mansour 1–0 Riadi Salmi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Yacoub El Mansour64%fair 1.57 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @2.90
Riadi Salmi12%fair 8.64 · @4.00
1.68Expected goals
1.33Yacoub El Mansour xG
0.35Riadi Salmi xG
31%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–025%
0–019%
2–016%
1–19%
3–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Yacoub El Mansour 1.3 – 0.4 Riadi Salmi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Yacoub El Mansour to win✓
64%
1.57
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Yacoub El Mansour or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
50%
1.99
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Yacoub El Mansour / FT Yacoub El Mansour✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
25%
4.05
–
Form
Yacoub El Mansour – last 6
WWWDLW
4 Oct
@ KAC Kenitra
1–0
W
26 Sep
vs Chabab Mohammédia
2–0
W
5 Jul
@ FUS Rabat
1–0
W
2 Jul
vs Difaa EL Jadida
2–2
D
28 Jun
@ Maghreb Fès
1–2
L
25 Jun
vs Raja Casablanca
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Riadi Salmi – last 6
DLDWWL
4 Oct
vs El Massira
0–0
D
27 Sep
@ Chabab Ben Guerir
0–2
L
5 Jul
vs Chabab Ben Guerir
1–1
D
27 Jun
@ KAC Kenitra
2–1
W
20 Jun
vs USM Oujda
2–0
W
14 Jun
@ Amal Tiznit
1–2
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Yacoub El Mansour and Riadi Salmi.
What is the prediction for Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi?
On our numbers Yacoub El Mansour have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Riadi Salmi 12%.
How many goals will there be in Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 31% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi?
Our predicted score is Yacoub El Mansour 1–0 Riadi Salmi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi?
Yacoub El Mansour vs Riadi Salmi (Botola 2) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
