Value bet: Fard Alborz to win @ 2.51 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFard Alborz to win ✗44% · @2.51
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · @1.52
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗74% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗19% · fair 5.35
Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz preview and prediction
The match
Fard Alborz travel to face Naft Gachsaran in the Azadegan League on Monday 19 October (15:30 WAT). Naft Gachsaran are 8th with 12 points from 9 games (in the top half), while Fard Alborz sit 3rd on 17 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Naft Gachsaran's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Fard Alborz's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Shahin Bandar Ameri 3–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fard Alborz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.7 for Naft Gachsaran and 0.9 for Fard Alborz. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Fard Alborz to win at 2.51 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Fard Alborz. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Naft Gachsaran32%fair 3.12 · @2.78
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @2.75
Fard Alborz44%fair 2.28 · @2.51
1.54Expected goals
0.67Naft Gachsaran xG
0.87Fard Alborz xG
45%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–021%
0–119%
1–014%
1–112%
0–28%
1–25%
From our goals model: Naft Gachsaran 0.7 – 0.9 Fard Alborz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fard Alborz to win✗
44%
2.28
2.51 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.32
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
55%
1.81
1.52
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
1.61
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.13
1.07
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
57%
1.77
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
19%
5.35
–
Form
Naft Gachsaran – last 6
LDDLDL
12 Oct
@ Pars Jonoubi JAM
0–1
L
4 Oct
vs Novin Ahvaz
1–1
D
28 Sep
@ Naft Bandar Abbas
0–0
D
22 Sep
vs Ario Eslamshahr
0–1
L
16 Sep
@ Be'sat Kermanshah
0–0
D
16 Jul
vs Mes Shahr-e Babak
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Fard Alborz – last 6
WLDWDD
11 Oct
vs Shahin Bandar Ameri
3–0
W
4 Oct
@ Naft Masjed Soleyman
0–1
L
27 Sep
vs Shenavarsazi Qeshm
0–0
D
21 Sep
@ Niroye Zamini
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Mes Kerman
1–1
D
16 Jul
@ Damash Gilanian
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Naft Gachsaran and Fard Alborz.
What is the prediction for Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
On our numbers Naft Gachsaran have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fard Alborz 44%.
How many goals will there be in Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
Our predicted score is Naft Gachsaran 0–0 Fard Alborz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz?
Naft Gachsaran vs Fard Alborz (Azadegan League) kicks off on Monday 19 October 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
