Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.53Odds
NG
Value bet: Not both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 59% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNeftchi to win ✗66% · @1.53
Double chanceNeftchi or draw ✗88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗59% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 1.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗34% · fair 2.95
Neftchi vs Lokomotiv preview and prediction
The match
Neftchi host Lokomotiv in the Cup on Tuesday 20 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Form guide
Neftchi's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Kokand-1912 4–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Lokomotiv's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Nasaf 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 20 September 2026, finished Lokomotiv 0–1 Neftchi. Across their last 2 meetings Neftchi have won 2, Lokomotiv 0, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.0 goals: 0.9 for Neftchi and 0.1 for Lokomotiv. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 92% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Not both teams to score at 1.91 – 59% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Neftchi to win – a 66% chance at odds of 1.53. Predicted score: Neftchi 1–0 Lokomotiv. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Neftchi66%fair 1.51 · @1.53
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.75
Lokomotiv12%fair 8.51 · @5.00
1.00Expected goals
0.92Neftchi xG
0.08Lokomotiv xG
41%Both score
8%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–037%
1–034%
2–016%
3–05%
0–13%
1–13%
From our goals model: Neftchi 0.9 – 0.1 Lokomotiv expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Neftchi to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
On our numbers Neftchi have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lokomotiv 12%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
We expect about 1.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 8% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
Our predicted score is Neftchi 1–0 Lokomotiv, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.0 goals in total.
When is Neftchi vs Lokomotiv?
Neftchi vs Lokomotiv (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Istiqlol Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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