Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.00 – our chance 58% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultATK Mohun Bagan to win ✗68% · @1.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✗87% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · fair 1.82
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗58% · @2.00
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.49
ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United preview and prediction
The match
The IFA Shield sees ATK Mohun Bagan take on NorthEast United on Tuesday 29 September, kicking off at 10:00 (WAT) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Form guide
ATK Mohun Bagan's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Sreenidi Deccan 6–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded.
NorthEast United's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Sreenidi Deccan 3–0 away. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 2.4 for ATK Mohun Bagan and 1.1 for NorthEast United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 55% of our simulations.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 2.00 – 58% on our numbers against 50% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was ATK Mohun Bagan to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.53, above our fair price of 1.47, so there is value in it. Predicted score: ATK Mohun Bagan 2–1 NorthEast United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
ATK Mohun Bagan68%fair 1.47 · @1.53
Draw13%fair 7.97 · @4.50
NorthEast United19%fair 5.19 · @4.20
3.53Expected goals
2.40ATK Mohun Bagan xG
1.13NorthEast United xG
55%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–08%
1–18%
3–18%
1–07%
3–07%
From our goals model: ATK Mohun Bagan 2.4 – 1.1 NorthEast United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
ATK Mohun Bagan to win✗
68%
1.47
1.53
Double chance
Either team to win✗
87%
1.14
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
2.00 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time result
ATK Mohun Bagan ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT ATK Mohun Bagan / FT ATK Mohun Bagan✗
43%
2.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.49
–
Form
ATK Mohun Bagan – last 6
WWDDDD
23 Sep
vs Sreenidi Deccan
6–0
W
21 May
vs SC Delhi
2–1
W
17 May
vs East Bengal II
1–1
D
12 May
vs Inter Kashi
0–0
D
9 May
@ Goa
1–1
D
4 Apr
@ Jamshedpur
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
NorthEast United – last 6
WWWWLD
26 Sep
@ Sreenidi Deccan
3–0
W
19 May
vs Mohammedan
2–0
W
10 May
vs Chennaiyin
4–1
W
2 May
vs Inter Kashi
3–2
W
24 Apr
vs Goa
0–2
L
15 Apr
@ Kerala Blasters
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between ATK Mohun Bagan and NorthEast United.
What is the prediction for ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United?
Our pick is ATK Mohun Bagan to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United?
On our numbers ATK Mohun Bagan have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 13% and NorthEast United 19%.
How many goals will there be in ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United?
Our predicted score is ATK Mohun Bagan 2–1 NorthEast United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United?
ATK Mohun Bagan vs NorthEast United (IFA Shield) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 10:00 (West Africa Time) at Vivekananda Yuba Bharati Krirangan.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
