Congo DR vs Uganda prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.53 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Congo DR 1.4 – 0.5 Uganda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Congo DR are clear favourites at home with a 62% chance of winning, against 17% for Uganda.
Congo DR have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.0 per game. Uganda have 4 points from their last 2 (1W 1D 0L), averaging 1.0 scored and 0.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.4 for Congo DR, 0.5 for Uganda). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (20%), 2–0 (14%), 0–0 (14%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 65% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.53 is close to our fair price of 1.54.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Congo DR to win ✗ | 62% | 1.61 | 1.70 ▲ |
| Double chance | Congo DR or draw ✗ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 1.59 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 61% | 1.63 | 1.41 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.14 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 49% | 2.06 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Congo DR / FT Congo DR ✗ | 36% | 2.81 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 20% | 4.97 | – |
Form
Congo DR – last 6
| 28 Sep | @ Zimbabwe | 2–1 | W |
| 24 Sep | vs Equatorial Guinea | 2–0 | W |
| 1 Jul | @ England | 1–2 | L |
| 28 Jun | vs Uzbekistan | 3–1 | W |
| 24 Jun | @ Colombia | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Jun | @ Portugal | 1–1 | D |
Uganda – last 2
| 29 Sep | vs Libya | 1–0 | W |
| 24 Sep | @ Tunisia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Congo DR and Uganda.
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What is the prediction for Congo DR vs Uganda?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win Congo DR vs Uganda?
On our numbers Congo DR have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Uganda 17%.
How many goals will there be in Congo DR vs Uganda?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
When is Congo DR vs Uganda?
Congo DR vs Uganda (Friendlies) kicks off on Friday 2 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.