Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.60 – our chance 50% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +30%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAntigua and Barbuda to win ✓76% · @1.07
Double chanceAntigua and Barbuda or draw ✓89% · fair 1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓60% · @1.28
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.14
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.81
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla preview and prediction
The match
Antigua and Barbuda host Anguilla in the CONCACAF Nations League on Sunday 27 September, with kick-off at 00:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.8 for Antigua and Barbuda and 0.4 for Anguilla. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 50% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Antigua and Barbuda 76%, draw 13%, Anguilla 11%.
Both teams to score: no (60%) at 1.28.
Value angle: Under 2.5 goals at 2.60 – 50% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.42, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Antigua and Barbuda 1–0 Anguilla. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Antigua and Barbuda76%fair 1.32 · @1.07
Draw13%fair 7.67 · @9.50
Anguilla11%fair 9.12 · @34.00
2.14Expected goals
1.77Antigua and Barbuda xG
0.37Anguilla xG
40%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
2–018%
0–012%
3–011%
1–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Antigua and Barbuda 1.8 – 0.4 Anguilla expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Antigua and Barbuda to win✓
76%
1.32
1.07
Double chance
Antigua and Barbuda or draw✓
89%
1.12
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.28
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.14
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
50%
2.00
2.60 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.42
1.62 ▲
Half-time result
Antigua and Barbuda ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Antigua and Barbuda / FT Antigua and Barbuda✓
46%
2.17
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.81
–
Form
Antigua and Barbuda – last 1
L
24 Sep
@ Aruba
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Anguilla – last 1
W
26 Mar
@ Bahamas
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Antigua and Barbuda and Anguilla.
What is the prediction for Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
On our numbers Antigua and Barbuda have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Anguilla 11%.
How many goals will there be in Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 40% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
Our predicted score is Antigua and Barbuda 1–0 Anguilla, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla?
Antigua and Barbuda vs Anguilla (CONCACAF Nations League) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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