South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Melbourne Victory or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Melbourne Victory to win @ 1.75 – our chance 62% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMelbourne Victory to win ✗62% · @1.75
Double chanceMelbourne Victory or draw ✓82% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.07
South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory preview and prediction
The match
Melbourne Victory travel to AAMI Park in the Australia Cup on Saturday 10 October (09:35 WAT) to face South Melbourne.
Form guide
South Melbourne's last 5: WLWLW Most recently they beat Lions 3–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Melbourne Victory's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Viettel 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 5. They average 1.2 scored and 0.3 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.0 for South Melbourne and 2.1 for Melbourne Victory. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: South Melbourne 18%, draw 20%, Melbourne Victory 62%.
Safer route: Melbourne Victory or draw (82%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Melbourne Victory to win at 1.75 – 62% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Melbourne Victory or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: South Melbourne 1–2 Melbourne Victory. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
South Melbourne18%fair 5.44 · @4.00
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @3.30
Melbourne Victory62%fair 1.61 · @1.75
3.13Expected goals
1.04South Melbourne xG
2.09Melbourne Victory xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
0–210%
1–19%
0–19%
1–37%
0–37%
From our goals model: South Melbourne 1.0 – 2.1 Melbourne Victory expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Melbourne Victory to win✗
62%
1.61
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Melbourne Victory or draw✓
82%
1.23
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.66
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Melbourne Victory ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Melbourne Victory / FT Melbourne Victory✗
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.07
–
Form
South Melbourne – last 6
WLWLWL
15 Sep
vs Lions
3–1
W
11 Sep
@ Oakleigh Cannons
1–2
L
6 Sep
vs Heidelberg United
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Sunshine Georgies
0–1
L
26 Aug
@ Preston Lions
2–1
W
23 Aug
vs Heidelberg United
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Melbourne Victory – last 6
DWDDWL
16 Sep
@ Viettel
1–1
D
9 Sep
@ Sydney
2–0
W
19 Aug
@ APIA Leichhardt Tigers
0–0
D
8 Aug
@ Western Sydney Wanderers
0–0
D
26 Jul
@ Kingborough Lions
4–0
W
2 May
vs Sydney
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between South Melbourne and Melbourne Victory.
What is the prediction for South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
Our pick is Melbourne Victory or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
On our numbers South Melbourne have a 18% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Melbourne Victory 62%.
How many goals will there be in South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
Our predicted score is South Melbourne 1–2 Melbourne Victory, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory?
South Melbourne vs Melbourne Victory (Australia Cup) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 09:35 (West Africa Time) at AAMI Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
