Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Estadio BelvedereLiverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.85 · bookmaker 2.00 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Racing Montevideo to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Liverpool Montevideo 1.1 – 1.0 Racing Montevideo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Liverpool Montevideo and Racing Montevideo on our numbers – 40% for the home side, 34% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Liverpool Montevideo have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Racing Montevideo have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.1 for Liverpool Montevideo, 1.0 for Racing Montevideo). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (13%), 0–1 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Liverpool Montevideo have won 0, Racing Montevideo have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 54% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.00 is better than our fair price of 1.85, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Racing Montevideo to win at 3.25 is our value angle (34% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Liverpool Montevideo to win ✗ | 40% | 2.47 | 2.25 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 54% | 1.85 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.58 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Liverpool Montevideo / FT Liverpool Montevideo ✗ | 22% | 4.58 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.57 | – |
Form
Liverpool Montevideo – last 6
| 14 Sep | @ Atletico Torque | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Boston River | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Sep | vs Boston River | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ Cerro Largo | 1–1 | D |
| 27 Aug | @ Fenix | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Aug | vs Cerro | 4–0 | W |
Racing Montevideo – last 6
| 17 Sep | @ Juventud | 0–3 | L |
| 12 Sep | vs Boston River | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Sep | vs Central Espanol | 2–4 | L |
| 6 Sep | @ Cerro | 0–1 | L |
| 4 Sep | @ Oriental | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | vs Albion FC | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
| 22 May 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo v Racing Montevideo | 0–0 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
On our numbers Liverpool Montevideo have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Racing Montevideo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
When is Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo?
Liverpool Montevideo vs Racing Montevideo (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Belvedere.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.