Value bet: LDU de Quito to win @ 1.79 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLDU de Quito to win ✗61% · @1.79
Double chanceLDU de Quito or draw ✗83% · @1.16
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.76
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica preview and prediction
The match
Universidad Catolica travel to Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado in the Copa Ecuador on Thursday 5 November (01:00 WAT) to face LDU de Quito.
Form guide
LDU de Quito's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Independiente del Valle 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Universidad Catolica's last 5: LDDDL Most recently they lost to Aucas 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
LDU de Quito arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 October 2026, finished Universidad Catolica 2–2 LDU de Quito. Across their last 4 meetings LDU de Quito have won 1, Universidad Catolica 1, with 2 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 3 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for LDU de Quito and 1.0 for Universidad Catolica. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 57% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: LDU de Quito 61%, draw 23%, Universidad Catolica 17%.
Safer route: LDU de Quito or draw (83%) at 1.16.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.76.
Value angle: LDU de Quito to win at 1.79 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: LDU de Quito 2–1 Universidad Catolica. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
LDU de Quito61%fair 1.65 · @1.79
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.30
Universidad Catolica17%fair 5.96 · @3.90
3.14Expected goals
2.10LDU de Quito xG
1.04Universidad Catolica xG
57%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: LDU de Quito 2.1 – 1.0 Universidad Catolica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica?
On our numbers LDU de Quito have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Universidad Catolica 17%.
How many goals will there be in LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica?
Our predicted score is LDU de Quito 2–1 Universidad Catolica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica?
LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica (Copa Ecuador) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
