Cup · Russia · Stadion Urozhay
Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.33 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Spartak Kostroma to win @ 2.34 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Spartak Kostroma 1.2 – 1.0 Chelyabinsk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Spartak Kostroma hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 32% for Chelyabinsk.
Spartak Kostroma have taken 12 points from their last 6 matches (4W 0D 2L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 per game. Chelyabinsk have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.2 for Spartak Kostroma, 1.0 for Chelyabinsk). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 50%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
In their last 2 meetings, Spartak Kostroma have won 1, Chelyabinsk have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 66% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.33 is close to our fair price of 1.51. For a bigger price, Spartak Kostroma to win at 2.34 is our value angle (46% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Spartak Kostroma to win ✓ | 46% | 2.17 | 2.34 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | 1.85 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.61 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.26 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Spartak Kostroma / FT Spartak Kostroma ✗ | 25% | 4.07 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 14% | 7.27 | – |
Form
Spartak Kostroma – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ Arsenal Tula | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Sep | vs Ural | 1–2 | L |
| 18 Sep | @ Volga Ulyanovsk | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sep | vs FK Neftekhimik | 1–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | @ Ryazan | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | @ Chelyabinsk | 1–0 | W |
Chelyabinsk – last 6
| 9 Oct | @ FK Neftekhimik | 4–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Enisey | 1–1 | D |
| 18 Sep | vs FC UFA | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Sep | @ KAMAZ | 1–1 | D |
| 10 Sep | @ Dinamo Barnaul | 2–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 5 Sep 2026 | Chelyabinsk v Spartak Kostroma | 0–1 |
| 7 Mar 2026 | Chelyabinsk v Spartak Kostroma | 3–3 |
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Fakel2Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
On our numbers Spartak Kostroma have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chelyabinsk 32%.
How many goals will there be in Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk?
Spartak Kostroma vs Chelyabinsk (Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Urozhay.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.