Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic prediction & analysis
84%
Footrivo pick
Auckland City or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Auckland City to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAuckland City to win ✗61% · @1.75
Double chanceAuckland City or draw ✓84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓69% · @1.44
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 14.19
Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic preview and prediction
The match
The National League National sees Auckland City take on Wellington Olympic on Saturday 10 October, kicking off at 03:00 (WAT) at Kiwitea Street. Auckland City are 4th with 12 points from 6 games (in the top four), while Wellington Olympic sit 2nd on 13 points (in the top four). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Auckland City's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Eastern Suburbs 4–2 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.7 goals a game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.7 goals: 3.0 for Auckland City and 1.7 for Wellington Olympic. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score in 69% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Auckland City 61%, draw 23%, Wellington Olympic 16%.
Safer route: Auckland City or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (69%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Auckland City to win at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Auckland City or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Auckland City 3–1 Wellington Olympic. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Auckland City61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.50
Wellington Olympic16%fair 6.28 · @3.70
4.67Expected goals
3.00Auckland City xG
1.67Wellington Olympic xG
69%Both score
84%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
3–17%
2–17%
3–26%
2–26%
4–15%
1–15%
From our goals model: Auckland City 3.0 – 1.7 Wellington Olympic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Auckland City to win✗
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Auckland City or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
69%
1.45
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
95%
1.06
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Half-time result
Auckland City ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.98
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Auckland City / FT Auckland City✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
14.19
–
Form
Auckland City – last 6
WWWWWW
3 Oct
@ Eastern Suburbs
4–2
W
22 Aug
vs Central Coast
2–0
W
19 Aug
vs Rewa
3–1
W
16 Aug
vs Vénus
4–3
W
13 Aug
@ Tiga Sport
1–0
W
10 Aug
@ Central Coast
2–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Wellington Olympic – last 2
LW
3 Oct
vs Ferrymead Bays
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Auckland FC 2
3–2
W
2.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Auckland City and Wellington Olympic.
What is the prediction for Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic?
Our pick is Auckland City or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic?
On our numbers Auckland City have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wellington Olympic 16%.
How many goals will there be in Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score 69% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic?
Our predicted score is Auckland City 3–1 Wellington Olympic, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.7 goals in total.
When is Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic?
Auckland City vs Wellington Olympic (National League National) kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Kiwitea Street.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
