Value bet: Estudiantes de Merida FC to win @ 3.10 – our chance 34% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonagas SC to win ✓42% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 9.06
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC preview and prediction
The match
Monagas SC host Estudiantes de Merida FC in the Primera División on Sunday 11 October, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT). Monagas SC are 4th with 3 points from 5 games (in the top four), while Estudiantes de Merida FC sit 9th on 17 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Monagas SC's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Mineros de Guyana 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Estudiantes de Merida FC's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with Trujillanos FC 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Monagas SC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.3 for Monagas SC and 1.2 for Estudiantes de Merida FC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 58%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monagas SC 42%, draw 24%, Estudiantes de Merida FC 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.73.
Value angle: Estudiantes de Merida FC to win at 3.10 – 34% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.73. Predicted score: Monagas SC 1–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monagas SC42%fair 2.39 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.30
Estudiantes de Merida FC34%fair 2.91 · @3.10
2.48Expected goals
1.32Monagas SC xG
1.16Estudiantes de Merida FC xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–27%
From our goals model: Monagas SC 1.3 – 1.2 Estudiantes de Merida FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monagas SC to win✓
42%
2.39
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.74
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monagas SC / FT Monagas SC✓
23%
4.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
9.06
–
Form
Monagas SC – last 6
LWDWWL
7 Oct
@ Mineros de Guyana
0–1
L
19 Sep
vs Zamora FC
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Rayo Zuliano
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Caracas FC
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Bolívar
5–1
W
6 Sep
vs Metropolitanos FC
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Estudiantes de Merida FC – last 6
DLLDWD
20 Sep
vs Trujillanos FC
1–1
D
13 Sep
@ Portuguesa FC
1–2
L
7 Sep
@ Carabobo FC
0–1
L
3 Sep
vs UCV
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Deportivo La Guaira
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Puerto Cabello
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monagas SC and Estudiantes de Merida FC.
What is the prediction for Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
On our numbers Monagas SC have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Estudiantes de Merida FC 34%.
How many goals will there be in Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Our predicted score is Monagas SC 1–1 Estudiantes de Merida FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC?
Monagas SC vs Estudiantes de Merida FC (Primera División) kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
