Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis prediction & analysis
78%
Footrivo pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Aris Thessalonikis to win @ 2.30 – our chance 48% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAris Thessalonikis to win ✗48% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✗78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.18
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis preview and prediction
The match
Asteras Tripolis host Aris Thessalonikis in the Cup on Thursday 10 September, with kick-off at 15:45 (WAT) at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
Form guide
Asteras Tripolis's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Iraklis 1908 0–2 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Aris Thessalonikis's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to AEK Athens FC 0–5 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Aris Thessalonikis arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 0.9 for Asteras Tripolis and 1.3 for Aris Thessalonikis. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Aris Thessalonikis to win at 2.30 – 48% on our numbers against 43% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Asteras Tripolis30%fair 3.34 · @2.92
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.20
Aris Thessalonikis48%fair 2.08 · @2.30
2.23Expected goals
0.93Asteras Tripolis xG
1.30Aris Thessalonikis xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
1–113%
0–011%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Asteras Tripolis 0.9 – 1.3 Aris Thessalonikis expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aris Thessalonikis to win✗
48%
2.08
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.71
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aris Thessalonikis / FT Aris Thessalonikis✗
26%
3.84
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.18
–
Form
Asteras Tripolis – last 6
LLLLDD
7 Sep
vs Iraklis 1908
0–2
L
30 Aug
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
23 Aug
@ Panetolikos
1–3
L
18 Aug
@ Levadiakos
0–2
L
31 Jul
@ ADO Den Haag
0–0
D
28 Jul
@ Sparta Rotterdam
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Aris Thessalonikis – last 6
LWWWLW
5 Sep
@ AEK Athens FC
0–5
L
30 Aug
vs OFI
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Kalamata
3–2
W
17 Aug
@ Anagennisi Karditsas
2–0
W
12 Aug
@ Napoli
2–6
L
30 Jul
@ Monza
3–1
W
2.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Asteras Tripolis and Aris Thessalonikis.
What is the prediction for Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
On our numbers Asteras Tripolis have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Aris Thessalonikis 48%.
How many goals will there be in Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our predicted score is Asteras Tripolis 0–1 Aris Thessalonikis, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Asteras Tripolis vs Aris Thessalonikis (Cup) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
