Value bet: Guangdong Mingtu to win @ 2.90 – our chance 38% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGuangdong Mingtu to win ✗38% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · fair 1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 6.95
Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu preview and prediction
The match
Changchun Xidu host Guangdong Mingtu in the League Two on Friday 18 September, with kick-off at 09:00 (WAT) at Yatai Training Base Stadium. Changchun Xidu are 8th with 41 points from 30 games (in the bottom three), while Guangdong Mingtu sit 6th on 29 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Changchun Xidu's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Hubei Chufeng Heli 2–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Guangdong Mingtu's last 5: WLWDD Most recently they beat Shanghai Second 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 0.9 for Changchun Xidu and 1.0 for Guangdong Mingtu. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely.
Value angle: Guangdong Mingtu to win at 2.90 – 38% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 54% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Changchun Xidu 0–0 Guangdong Mingtu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Changchun Xidu35%fair 2.86 · @2.45
Draw27%fair 3.68 · @2.62
Guangdong Mingtu38%fair 2.64 · @2.90
1.93Expected goals
0.94Changchun Xidu xG
0.99Guangdong Mingtu xG
46%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–015%
0–114%
1–014%
1–114%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Changchun Xidu 0.9 – 1.0 Guangdong Mingtu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Guangdong Mingtu to win✗
38%
2.64
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
23%
4.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
6.95
–
Form
Changchun Xidu – last 6
WWDLDD
12 Sep
@ Hubei Chufeng Heli
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Dalian Kewei
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ BIT
2–2
D
9 Aug
vs Xi'an Ronghai
1–2
L
2 Aug
@ Shanghai Second
1–1
D
25 Jul
@ Shandong Taishan II
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Guangdong Mingtu – last 6
WLWDDW
12 Sep
vs Shanghai Second
1–0
W
23 Aug
@ Langfang Glory City
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Wuhan Three Towns II
3–0
W
9 Aug
vs Yichun Grand Tiger
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Hubei Chufeng Heli
0–0
D
27 Jul
vs Chengdu Rongcheng II
2–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Changchun Xidu and Guangdong Mingtu.
What is the prediction for Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu?
On our numbers Changchun Xidu have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Guangdong Mingtu 38%.
How many goals will there be in Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu?
Our predicted score is Changchun Xidu 0–0 Guangdong Mingtu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu?
Changchun Xidu vs Guangdong Mingtu (League Two) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 09:00 (West Africa Time) at Yatai Training Base Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Yichun Grand Tiger0
Wuhan Three Towns II0