Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ prediction & analysis
66%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Sampaio Corrêa RJ to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMadureira to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓59% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓66% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.99
Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ preview and prediction
The match
Madureira host Sampaio Corrêa RJ in the Copa Rio on Wednesday 23 September, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at Estadio Conselheiro Galvao.
Form guide
Madureira's last 5: DDLDW Most recently they drew with Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Sampaio Corrêa RJ's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Madureira 1–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sampaio Corrêa RJ arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 16 September 2026, finished Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1–1 Madureira.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Madureira and 0.9 for Sampaio Corrêa RJ. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Sampaio Corrêa RJ to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.50. Predicted score: Madureira 1–0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Madureira40%fair 2.53 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.10
Sampaio Corrêa RJ36%fair 2.75 · @3.00
1.95Expected goals
1.01Madureira xG
0.94Sampaio Corrêa RJ xG
41%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
0–014%
1–114%
0–113%
2–07%
2–17%
From our goals model: Madureira 1.0 – 0.9 Sampaio Corrêa RJ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ?
On our numbers Madureira have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Sampaio Corrêa RJ 36%.
How many goals will there be in Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 41% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ?
Our predicted score is Madureira 1–0 Sampaio Corrêa RJ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ?
Madureira vs Sampaio Corrêa RJ (Copa Rio) kicks off on Wednesday 23 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Conselheiro Galvao.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Copa Rio · Brazil · Estadio Conselheiro Galvao
