Good pick · fair odds 1.70 · bookmaker 1.83 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.83Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultRustavi to win ✓59% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✓81% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.82
Samtredia vs Rustavi preview and prediction
The match
The David Kipiani Cup sees Samtredia take on Rustavi on Saturday 26 September, kicking off at 14:00 (WAT) at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.
Form guide
Samtredia's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Merani Martvili 5–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Rustavi's last 5: LWDLD Most recently they lost to FC Iberia 1999 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Samtredia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.9 for Samtredia and 1.7 for Rustavi. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 47%.
Our pre-match pick was Rustavi to win – a 59% chance at odds of 1.83, above our fair price of 1.70, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Samtredia 0–1 Rustavi. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Samtredia22%fair 4.58 · @3.40
Draw19%fair 5.22 · @3.70
Rustavi59%fair 1.70 · @1.83
2.59Expected goals
0.89Samtredia xG
1.70Rustavi xG
47%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–111%
0–211%
1–210%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: Samtredia 0.9 – 1.7 Rustavi expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Rustavi to win✓
59%
1.70
1.83 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Rustavi / FT Rustavi✗
35%
2.87
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.82
–
Form
Samtredia – last 6
WLWWWW
20 Sep
vs Merani Martvili
5–0
W
16 Sep
@ Kolkheti Poti
0–1
L
12 Sep
vs Gareji
6–1
W
7 Sep
@ Telavi
3–0
W
2 Sep
vs FC Iberia 1999
2–0
W
28 Aug
vs Odishi 1919
3–0
W
3.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Rustavi – last 6
LWDLDW
21 Sep
vs FC Iberia 1999
0–2
L
14 Sep
@ Meshakhte
1–0
W
9 Sep
@ Spaeri
1–1
D
4 Sep
vs Dinamo Batumi
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Samgurali
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Gagra
3–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Samtredia and Rustavi.
Our pick is Rustavi to win with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.83.
Who will win Samtredia vs Rustavi?
On our numbers Samtredia have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Rustavi 59%.
How many goals will there be in Samtredia vs Rustavi?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Samtredia vs Rustavi?
Our predicted score is Samtredia 0–1 Rustavi, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Samtredia vs Rustavi?
Samtredia vs Rustavi (David Kipiani Cup) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
