The NM Cupen sees Bærum take on Lillestrom on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 17:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Bærum's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to Vålerenga II 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Lillestrom's last 5: LLWWW Most recently they lost to Viking 0–3 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.5 goals: 0.8 for Bærum and 2.7 for Lillestrom. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bærum 9%, draw 16%, Lillestrom 75%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.65.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.65. Predicted score: Bærum 1–2 Lillestrom. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bærum9%fair 10.92 · @15.00
Draw16%fair 6.44 · @8.00
Lillestrom75%fair 1.33 · @1.12
3.50Expected goals
0.85Bærum xG
2.65Lillestrom xG
57%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–211%
0–39%
1–29%
0–18%
1–38%
1–17%
From our goals model: Bærum 0.8 – 2.7 Lillestrom expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lillestrom to win✓
75%
1.33
1.12
Double chance
Lillestrom or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.03
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
54%
1.86
–
Half-time result
Lillestrom ahead at half-time✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lillestrom / FT Lillestrom✓
52%
1.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–2✗
11%
9.42
–
Form
Bærum – last 6
LLLWDW
26 Sep
@ Vålerenga II
0–2
L
19 Sep
vs Union Carl Berner
1–2
L
13 Sep
@ Lokomotiv Oslo
2–5
L
5 Sep
vs Nordstrand
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Konnerud
1–1
D
22 Aug
vs Mjondalen
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lillestrom – last 6
LLWWWL
20 Sep
@ Viking
0–3
L
17 Sep
vs Torreense
1–2
L
12 Sep
vs Valerenga
2–0
W
5 Sep
@ Brann
2–1
W
2 Sep
@ Aurskog Finstadbru
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Fredrikstad
1–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bærum and Lillestrom.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Bærum vs Lillestrom?
On our numbers Bærum have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lillestrom 75%.
How many goals will there be in Bærum vs Lillestrom?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bærum vs Lillestrom?
Our predicted score is Bærum 1–2 Lillestrom, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Bærum vs Lillestrom?
Bærum vs Lillestrom (NM Cupen) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Madla0
Viking3