Good pick · fair odds 1.71 · bookmaker 1.67 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.67Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultToluca to win ✓49% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Toluca vs Monterrey preview and prediction
The match
The Leagues Cup sees Toluca take on Monterrey on Monday 7 September, kicking off at 02:15 (WAT).
Form guide
Toluca's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Leon 2–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Monterrey's last 5: DLWLW Most recently they drew with Club America 2–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Toluca arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.6 for Toluca and 1.2 for Monterrey. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toluca 49%, draw 22%, Monterrey 29%.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 59% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Toluca 1–1 Monterrey. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toluca49%fair 2.02 · @2.00
Draw22%fair 4.57 · @3.10
Monterrey29%fair 3.49 · @3.10
2.80Expected goals
1.63Toluca xG
1.17Monterrey xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Toluca 1.6 – 1.2 Monterrey expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toluca to win✓
49%
2.02
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
59%
1.71
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toluca / FT Toluca✓
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.08
–
Form
Toluca – last 6
WWWWDW
3 Sep
vs Leon
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs FC Juarez
4–0
W
27 Aug
vs Austin
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Club Queretaro
2–1
W
16 Aug
@ Atlante FC
0–0
D
13 Aug
vs FC Dallas
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Monterrey – last 6
DLWLWW
3 Sep
@ Club America
2–2
D
31 Aug
vs Atletico San Luis
1–3
L
26 Aug
vs Chicago Fire
2–1
W
22 Aug
@ Leon
0–2
L
16 Aug
vs FC Juarez
6–1
W
13 Aug
vs Nashville SC
2–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toluca and Monterrey.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Toluca vs Monterrey?
On our numbers Toluca have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Monterrey 29%.
How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Monterrey?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toluca vs Monterrey?
Our predicted score is Toluca 1–1 Monterrey, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toluca vs Monterrey?
Toluca vs Monterrey (Leagues Cup) kicks off on Monday 7 September 2026 at 02:15 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
