Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
2
Value bet: Hong Kong FC to win @ 2.60 – our chance 42% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultHong Kong FC to win ✗42% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✗80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · fair 1.76
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 11.80
Shatin vs Hong Kong FC preview and prediction
The match
The League Cup sees Shatin take on Hong Kong FC on Thursday 1 October, kicking off at 12:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Shatin's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Warriors 0–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 2.6 conceded.
Hong Kong FC's last 5: LWLLD Most recently they lost to Kowloon City 1–4 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Hong Kong FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.3 goals: 1.6 for Shatin and 1.7 for Hong Kong FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 65% and both teams to score at 57%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Shatin 38%, draw 20%, Hong Kong FC 42%.
Value angle: Hong Kong FC to win at 2.60 – 42% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.44. Predicted score: Shatin 1–2 Hong Kong FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Shatin38%fair 2.62 · @2.10
Draw20%fair 5.04 · @4.00
Hong Kong FC42%fair 2.39 · @2.60
3.32Expected goals
1.62Shatin xG
1.71Hong Kong FC xG
57%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–28%
2–18%
2–27%
0–16%
1–06%
From our goals model: Shatin 1.6 – 1.7 Hong Kong FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hong Kong FC to win✗
42%
2.39
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
80%
1.25
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
1.44
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
58%
1.74
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
37%
2.68
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hong Kong FC / FT Hong Kong FC✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
11.80
–
Form
Shatin – last 5
LLLLW
19 Sep
vs Warriors
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs Kowloon City
2–3
L
6 Sep
vs North District
0–5
L
28 Aug
@ Warriors
0–3
L
21 Aug
@ Eastern
3–1
W
1.0Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Hong Kong FC – last 6
LWLLDW
19 Sep
@ Kowloon City
1–4
L
12 Sep
@ Wofoo Tai Po
2–1
W
6 Sep
vs Warriors
0–3
L
22 Aug
@ Southern District
2–3
L
16 May
@ Kowloon City
1–1
D
10 May
vs BC Rangers
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Shatin and Hong Kong FC.
What is the prediction for Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
On our numbers Shatin have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Hong Kong FC 42%.
How many goals will there be in Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
We expect about 3.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
Our predicted score is Shatin 1–2 Hong Kong FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.3 goals in total.
When is Shatin vs Hong Kong FC?
Shatin vs Hong Kong FC (League Cup) kicks off on Thursday 1 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
North District2
Southern District1