Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 57% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSaudi Arabia to win ✓56% · @1.85
Double chanceSaudi Arabia or draw ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @2.10
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗11% · fair 8.88
Saudi Arabia vs Iraq preview and prediction
The match
Iraq travel to King Abdullah Sports City in the Gulf Cup Of Nations on Tuesday 29 September (18:30 WAT) to face Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia are 1st with 9 points from 3 games, while Iraq sit 3rd on 4 points.
Form guide
Saudi Arabia's last 5: WWDLD Most recently they beat Oman 3–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Iraq's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Kuwait 3–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Saudi Arabia arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.8 for Saudi Arabia and 1.0 for Iraq. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Saudi Arabia 56%, draw 23%, Iraq 21%.
Safer route: Saudi Arabia or draw (79%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 57% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Saudi Arabia or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Saudi Arabia 1–0 Iraq. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Saudi Arabia56%fair 1.79 · @1.85
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @2.90
Iraq21%fair 4.68 · @4.00
2.75Expected goals
1.76Saudi Arabia xG
0.99Iraq xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–011%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–06%
0–16%
From our goals model: Saudi Arabia 1.8 – 1.0 Iraq expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Saudi Arabia to win✓
56%
1.79
1.85
Double chance
Saudi Arabia or draw✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.45
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Saudi Arabia / FT Saudi Arabia✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
11%
8.88
–
Form
Saudi Arabia – last 6
WWDLDD
26 Sep
@ Oman
3–0
W
23 Sep
vs Kuwait
1–0
W
27 Jun
@ Cape Verde Islands
0–0
D
21 Jun
@ Spain
0–4
L
15 Jun
vs Uruguay
1–1
D
10 Jun
vs Senegal
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Iraq – last 6
WDLLLL
26 Sep
@ Kuwait
3–2
W
23 Sep
vs Oman
1–1
D
26 Jun
@ Senegal
0–5
L
22 Jun
@ France
0–3
L
16 Jun
vs Norway
1–4
L
10 Jun
vs Venezuela
0–2
L
0.8Scored / game
2.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Our pick is Saudi Arabia or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Saudi Arabia vs Iraq?
On our numbers Saudi Arabia have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Iraq 21%.
How many goals will there be in Saudi Arabia vs Iraq?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Saudi Arabia vs Iraq?
Our predicted score is Saudi Arabia 1–0 Iraq, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Saudi Arabia vs Iraq?
Saudi Arabia vs Iraq (Gulf Cup Of Nations) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at King Abdullah Sports City.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
