CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja preview and prediction
The match
CD Marathon host Estrella Roja in the Liga Nacional on Sunday 6 September, with kick-off at 02:30 (WAT) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Form guide
CD Marathon's last 5: WWDLW Most recently they beat Génesis 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Estrella Roja's last 5: DWDWL Most recently they drew with CD Olimpia 2–2 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
CD Marathon arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.6.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.8 for CD Marathon and 0.9 for Estrella Roja. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: CD Marathon 59%, draw 20%, Estrella Roja 21%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.91.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.91, above our fair price of 1.73, so there is value in it. Predicted score: CD Marathon 1–1 Estrella Roja. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
CD Marathon59%fair 1.69 · @1.65
Draw20%fair 5.08 · @3.30
Estrella Roja21%fair 4.74 · @5.00
2.70Expected goals
1.78CD Marathon xG
0.92Estrella Roja xG
58%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
3–06%
From our goals model: CD Marathon 1.8 – 0.9 Estrella Roja expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CD Marathon to win✓
59%
1.69
1.65
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.97
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
–
Half-time result
CD Marathon ahead at half-time✓
41%
2.42
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CD Marathon / FT CD Marathon✓
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
12%
8.38
–
Form
CD Marathon – last 6
WWDLWW
29 Aug
@ Génesis
2–1
W
27 Aug
vs Real Estelí
3–0
W
23 Aug
vs Real Espana
1–1
D
20 Aug
vs Alianza
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Atlético Choloma
1–0
W
14 Aug
@ Antigua GFC
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Estrella Roja – last 5
DWDWL
30 Aug
vs CD Olimpia
2–2
D
23 Aug
vs Juticalpa
5–2
W
16 Aug
@ Lobos Upnfm
2–2
D
10 Aug
@ CD Motagua
2–0
W
3 Aug
vs Olancho
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between CD Marathon and Estrella Roja.
What is the prediction for CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
On our numbers CD Marathon have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Estrella Roja 21%.
How many goals will there be in CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
Our predicted score is CD Marathon 1–1 Estrella Roja, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja?
CD Marathon vs Estrella Roja (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 02:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Yankel Rosenthal.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
