Value bet: Paysandu to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerrito to win ✗46% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.61
Cerrito vs Paysandu preview and prediction
The match
Paysandu travel to face Cerrito in the Segunda División on Saturday 5 September (19:00 WAT). Cerrito are 8th with 34 points from 25 games (in the bottom half), while Paysandu sit 5th on 35 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerrito's last 5: LLWDL Most recently they lost to Deportivo Maldonado 0–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Paysandu's last 5: WDLLW Most recently they beat Atenas 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Paysandu arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 0.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 30 May 2026, finished Paysandu 0–1 Cerrito.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.4 for Cerrito and 1.1 for Paysandu. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerrito 46%, draw 23%, Paysandu 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Paysandu to win at 3.40 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 57% chance at odds of 1.75. Predicted score: Cerrito 1–1 Paysandu. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerrito46%fair 2.19 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @3.00
Paysandu32%fair 3.15 · @3.40
2.48Expected goals
1.39Cerrito xG
1.09Paysandu xG
57%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Cerrito 1.4 – 1.1 Paysandu expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Cerrito vs Paysandu?
On our numbers Cerrito have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Paysandu 32%.
How many goals will there be in Cerrito vs Paysandu?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerrito vs Paysandu?
Our predicted score is Cerrito 1–1 Paysandu, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Cerrito vs Paysandu?
Cerrito vs Paysandu (Segunda División) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
