Value bet: Encarnación to win @ 3.30 – our chance 33% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIndependiente F.b.c. to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓11% · fair 9.22
Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación preview and prediction
The match
Encarnación travel to face Independiente F.b.c. in the Division Intermedia on Monday 14 September (23:00 WAT). Independiente F.b.c. are 6th with 43 points from 30 games (in the top half), while Encarnación sit 16th on 26 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Independiente F.b.c.'s last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Deportivo Santani 2–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Encarnación's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Tacuary 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Independiente F.b.c. arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for Independiente F.b.c. and 1.2 for Encarnación. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 51%.
Value angle: Encarnación to win at 3.30 – 33% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.85. Predicted score: Independiente F.b.c. 1–1 Encarnación. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Independiente F.b.c.45%fair 2.22 · @2.05
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.00
Encarnación33%fair 3.07 · @3.30
2.57Expected goals
1.42Independiente F.b.c. xG
1.15Encarnación xG
51%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Independiente F.b.c. 1.4 – 1.2 Encarnación expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Independiente F.b.c. to win✓
45%
2.22
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Independiente F.b.c. / FT Independiente F.b.c.✗
25%
3.96
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
11%
9.22
–
Form
Independiente F.b.c. – last 6
WDLDWW
9 Sep
@ Deportivo Santani
2–1
W
4 Sep
vs Fernando De La Mora
0–0
D
28 Aug
@ 3 de Noviembre
2–5
L
22 Aug
vs General Caballero
0–0
D
15 Aug
@ Guairena FC
2–1
W
11 Aug
vs Sportivo Ameliano
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Encarnación – last 6
DWLWLL
9 Sep
vs Tacuary
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Atlético Tembetary
2–0
W
31 Aug
vs Benjamín Aceval
1–3
L
23 Aug
@ Sportivo Carapeguá
3–1
W
14 Aug
vs 12 de Junio VH
0–2
L
8 Aug
vs Paraguari AC
0–1
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Independiente F.b.c. and Encarnación.
What is the prediction for Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación?
On our numbers Independiente F.b.c. have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Encarnación 33%.
How many goals will there be in Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación?
Our predicted score is Independiente F.b.c. 1–1 Encarnación, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación?
Independiente F.b.c. vs Encarnación (Division Intermedia) kicks off on Monday 14 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
