Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Chapulineros or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Chapulineros to win @ 1.85 – our chance 62% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultChapulineros to win ✓62% · @1.85
Double chanceChapulineros or draw ✓86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.33
Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta preview and prediction
The match
Chapulineros host Tritons Vallarta in the on Saturday 24 October, with kick-off at 01:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Chapulineros's last 5: WWLDD Most recently they beat Montañeses 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Tritons Vallarta's last 5: LLDLD Most recently they lost to Irapuato 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Chapulineros arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Chapulineros and 0.7 for Tritons Vallarta. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Chapulineros to win at 1.85 – 62% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Chapulineros or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Chapulineros 1–0 Tritons Vallarta. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Chapulineros62%fair 1.62 · @1.85
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @3.40
Tritons Vallarta14%fair 7.23 · @3.60
2.38Expected goals
1.71Chapulineros xG
0.67Tritons Vallarta xG
54%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Chapulineros 1.7 – 0.7 Tritons Vallarta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Chapulineros to win✓
62%
1.62
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Chapulineros or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.73
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Chapulineros / FT Chapulineros✓
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.33
–
Form
Chapulineros – last 6
WWLDDL
17 Oct
vs Montañeses
2–1
W
4 Oct
@ Tapachula
3–2
W
26 Sep
vs Pioneros de Cancún
1–3
L
20 Sep
@ Inter Playa del Carmen
0–0
D
12 Sep
vs Celaya
1–1
D
5 Sep
@ Racing de Veracruz
1–5
L
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tritons Vallarta – last 6
LLDLDD
11 Oct
@ Irapuato
0–1
L
4 Oct
@ Lobos ULMX
1–2
L
27 Sep
@ Tigres de Alica
1–1
D
20 Sep
@ Los Cabos United
0–1
L
11 Sep
vs Zacatepec 1948
1–1
D
22 Apr
vs Deportiva Venados
1–1
D
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Chapulineros and Tritons Vallarta.
What is the prediction for Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
Our pick is Chapulineros or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
On our numbers Chapulineros have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tritons Vallarta 14%.
How many goals will there be in Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
Our predicted score is Chapulineros 1–0 Tritons Vallarta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta?
Chapulineros vs Tritons Vallarta () kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
